How Accurate is the AdWords Keyword Tool?

I'm sure by now that everyone who reads here knows the AdWords Keyword Tool is showing numbers instead of the graphs it would show just a few weeks back. I think one of the big questions on everyone's mind is just how accurate is the data being shown? I decided to take a look in a few accounts I have access to and found at least keyword that seems to meet all the criteria I would use for a test. I found one in particular that was live in June, and the AdWords Keyword Tool does reference June data.

Here are a few details:

- The keyword is exact match.
- 100% impression share for June.
- It's opted in Google + Search Network
- US targeting

When logged into the account the keyword tool indicates that the approximate June search volume was 34,830. That estimate is based on exact match and the correct location targeting. Here's what surprised me - the actual number of impressions that keyword received in June was 36,770. Do a little rounding and the estimate provided by the keyword tool comes out within 5% of the real number.

Now of course that's one keyword in one account and in no way am I trying to imply that the keyword tool will be that accurate in all cases. I'm honestly surprised though at just how accurate it is in this case.

Anyone else seeing similar numbers?

edit/add - the Wordtracker estimate of this same keyword is way, way, way off. It's estimate is under 200...

AdWords Keyword Tool - Now With "Real" Numbers

Logging into my MCC this afternoon I was greeted with the following message:

"You can now see statistics on the approximate number of search queries matching your keywords. This data allows you to better plan your budget and pick keywords most likely to return quality leads, which in turn can help improve your ROI."

The link provided took me here.

After reading the help page I jumped over to the AdWords keyword tool and ran a sample query and sure enough, there are now actual numbers next to the graphs. Good stuff...should help, at least somewhat, in terms of forecasting and account structure.

Edit: others noticed this as well:

Google's Keyword Tool Now Showing Search Volume Numbers ~ SER
Google "Leaks" Search Volume ~ Tamar